ANC blames failing services as election support crumbles

The African National Congress has suffered its worst local election result since Nelson Mandela led South Africa out of apartheid more than 30 years ago, and the party itself has put the blame squarely on the state of services on the ground. Secretary-general Fikile Mbalula described the outcome as “catastrophic” on Saturday, pointing to the cost of living and the defection of middle-class voters in large numbers. “We knew this disaster is coming, we’re staring at it,” he said.

The numbers behind that verdict are stark. The ANC still won the most votes of any party nationally, but its share fell to 30.76%, roughly a third below the 46% it secured in 2021 and far from the 64.82% it recorded 20 years ago. The erosion is most visible where delivery is judged most directly: in municipalities. The party now holds a majority in only one of the country’s nine provinces, Limpopo, down from six in 2021. It led the vote in just two of the eight cities, compared with six at the previous local elections.

Political analyst Susan Booysen said the result amounts to a devastating message for the party. “It’s an ANC in decline at local municipal level, at the metropolitan level, and when the results are reflected provincially and nationally, we see severe declines in ANC levels of support all around.” She attributed the loss of support largely to poor service delivery and infrastructure across the country, from water and power to sanitation. “These are huge problems,” she said, “and have really been affecting the lives of ordinary people, in the suburbs, in the townships, and in very dramatic ways.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa, who leads the ANC, acknowledged the verdict as he entered the count centre. “We accept the will of the people however concerning it might be, we accept that this is how the people of South Africa in our towns, in our cities, in our metros have spoken, and this is their verdict, we accept it with humility,” he said. “It is a decline that is concerning, that is how I characterise it.”

Meanwhile, the opposition landscape shifted accordingly. The Democratic Alliance came second overall with 24.64% of the vote and retained majority control of the city of Cape Town. Former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party finished third with 9.76%, unseating the ANC as the winner in Durban. The Economic Freedom Fighters, led by Julius Malema and once seen as a serious challenge to the ANC, came fourth with 6.22%.

The DA’s urban gains were notable, though its national performance was more modest. Its overall vote share rose only marginally from 21.83% in 2021 and remains below the 26.9% it achieved in 2016. The party, traditionally known as the “white party” for attracting a largely white electorate, drew more black votes this time, a shift analyst William Gumede described as a move toward “a post-racial voting pattern in South Africa.”

Turnout rose to 52.29% from 45.9% in 2021, when elections were held during the Covid pandemic, meaning the rebuke came from a larger share of the electorate rather than a disengaged one.

By contrast with its once-dominant position, the result extends a decline that began at national level. In the 2024 national elections the ANC lost its majority for the first time in its history and was forced into a coalition with a raft of other parties, the arrangement known as the government of national unity, or GNU. Gumede argues the pattern marks the close of a political era. “It is sort of the end of the liberation movement era in South Africa, and the dominance of the liberation movement since the end of apartheid,” he said. “So the ANC is going to be a party that by 2029 could be the second biggest rather than the biggest party. It may actually spiral into a long period of just total infighting. This is a new era for South Africa’s politics and also the ANC.”

Attention now turns to coalition negotiations, which parties have 14 days from the announcement of results to complete. The three metropolitan municipalities in Gauteng, the country’s economic powerhouse, face particular scrutiny, and the ANC may find itself shut out of government in both Johannesburg and Pretoria. “We are now in a coalition country,” Gumede said, adding that voters are signalling they no longer want dominant parties at any level of government. “We actually want coalitions. We want people to work together.”

The broader picture is complicated by the ANC’s internal timetable. The party will elect a new leader next year as Ramaphosa reaches the end of his term as party president. He is due to remain president of the country until the next national elections in 2029, but few candidates have been lined up to succeed him in either role, leaving the party that has governed South Africa for three decades facing both an electoral and a succession problem.