ANC Faces Investor Worry as Polls Show Municipal Vote Slide
Coalition churn in Gauteng metros puts budgets and utilities at stake
The African National Congress enters Wednesday’s municipal elections facing polls that put it below a third of the vote, a steep slide from the 45.6 percent it secured in the 2021 municipal contests and the 40.2 percent it took at the 2024 national elections. The financial stakes are considerable in a country where unstable local coalitions have become a drag on service delivery and economic activity, and the vote will test how far citizens are willing to punish the former liberation movement for years of failing infrastructure.
The ANC, which Nelson Mandela led to power in 1994 as South Africa’s first black president at the end of apartheid, is still expected to emerge as the largest party. For investors and market watchers, though, the headline is not only the vote share but what it means for governance in the metros that drive the national economy.
Fragmentation means the ANC could still lead coalition governments in many cities while losing others. Unstable coalitions already characterise many of South Africa’s 257 municipalities, and analysts point to the high turnover of administrations as a major reason for poor service delivery. The cost of that churn is visible in Gauteng, the country’s most populous and densely populated province and its economic engine. Johannesburg, a city of 4.8 million people that has faced water shortages for more than a week, has had 10 mayors in as many years. Neighbouring Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021, while in Tshwane, which contains the capital Pretoria, the mayoralty has rotated between parties four times since 2020. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, in east Tshwane.
By contrast, the centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance is leading the polls in all three Gauteng metros, though below 40 percent. According to South African media, the ANC’s national leadership is open to working with the DA in Gauteng, mirroring the government of national unity in which the two parties are the largest partners nationally. Local ANC leaders, however, are reportedly not in favour of a DA tie-up. At present, the ANC governs across the province’s three metros with a combination of the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters and the populist Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA.
In Johannesburg, the DA’s Helen Zille has run a spirited campaign, with viral stunts that included the 75-year-old snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking along a flooded street. Yet the former Cape Town mayor is still viewed with suspicion by many voters, especially black voters, because of controversial past comments that appeared to excuse colonialism. Some voters also point to soaring housing costs in Cape Town, run by the DA since 2006, as a reason not to back her.
The arithmetic in Johannesburg is complicated further by Herman Mashaba, a former DA mayor of the city who now leads ActionSA, a party polling around 10 percent. Mashaba has ruled out working with Zille and has called her a “racist”, an allegation she has always fervently denied. The ANC, for its part, has three possible mayoral candidates for the city amid factional infighting.
Meanwhile, in eThekwini metro, which contains the port city of Durban, the uMkhonto we Sizwe party of former ANC president Jacob Zuma is polling above 40 percent. The 84-year-old Zuma, who has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations, is set to take many votes from his former party, which won 42 percent in eThekwini in 2021 and is now polling around 10 percent. In Cape Town, the DA looks set to retain its majority, although probably with less than the 58 percent it won in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against the party.
The electoral commission will have a week to announce the final results of Wednesday’s vote, which chooses councillors and parties, with mayors not directly elected. Parties will then have two weeks from the announcement to form councils and elect mayors, a process that will determine who controls the budgets and utilities of the metros on which South Africa’s economy most depends. Reference reporting on the vote and its aftermath can be followed at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/04/anc-south-africa-local-elections-water-outages-power-cuts.
Q&A
Why do investors care about South Africa's municipal elections?
Because the vote will shape governance in the metros that drive the national economy. Unstable local coalitions have become a drag on service delivery and economic activity, and high turnover of administrations is cited by analysts as a major reason for poor service delivery.
What evidence is there of governance instability in Gauteng's metros?
Johannesburg, a city of 4.8 million people facing water shortages for more than a week, has had 10 mayors in as many years. Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021, and Tshwane's mayoralty has rotated between parties four times since 2020. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, in east Tshwane.
What are the possible coalition outcomes in Gauteng?
The DA leads polls in all three Gauteng metros though below 40 percent. The ANC's national leadership is reportedly open to working with the DA, mirroring the government of national unity, but local ANC leaders are not in favour. The ANC currently governs the metros with the Economic Freedom Fighters, the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA, and Herman Mashaba has ruled out working with Helen Zille.
What happens after the vote?
The electoral commission has a week to announce final results. Parties then have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors, a process that will determine who controls the budgets and utilities of the metros on which South Africa's economy most depends. Mayors are not directly elected.