No majority in sight: SA councils face coalition test

South Africa’s electoral institutions face their most consequential test since 1994. With no party commanding majority support nationally, responsibility for forming governments after the November Local Government Elections will fall to coalition negotiations across the country’s 257 metropolitan, district and local councils and 4,488 wards. According to the latest Ipsos “Pulse of the People” study (Wave 2 2026), coalition politics is likely to remain a defining feature of the political landscape for the next two-and-a-half years leading up to the next National Election.

The accountability questions begin with the voters themselves. Of the 44,9 million South Africans aged 18 and older who are eligible to vote, only 29,2 million are registered with the Independent Electoral Commission, a figure of 65% of those eligible. Some 35% of citizens have, in effect, disenfranchised themselves by not registering. Meanwhile, 62% of South Africans in the survey agreed that they are looking forward to voting in the 2026 Local Government Elections, a hopeful signal that stands against a decade-long downward trend in turnout. If turnout on 4 November 2026 mirrors LGE2021, only about 12,8 million votes will be cast; at 2024 National and Provincial election levels, roughly 16,3 million voters would participate. Ipsos cautions that turnout could prove decisive in several councils, meaning the figures may still shift.

The research house warns that these figures are not a prediction of final outcomes, as surveys reflect voter sentiment at the time of fieldwork. Interviews were conducted between 12 September and 13 October 2026, a period of intensified campaigning that saw manifesto launches, election posters, radio advertising dominated by election messaging, and some election-related court cases. A randomly selected sample of 3 600 South Africans was interviewed in their homes and home languages, weighted and projected to the adult population, with filters isolating the 2,533 respondents who are 18 or older and registered to vote.

On the question of who will govern, Mari Harris, Political Analyst at Ipsos in South Africa, expects new coalition governments in most metropolitan municipalities after the elections, with numerous local and district councils also expected to be governed through coalition arrangements. “Two weeks of intense speculation and uncertainty are likely to follow the announcement of the final election results, as coalition negotiations take centre stage particularly in councils where no single party secures a majority,” she says.

Harris places the burden of governance squarely on the parties themselves. Securing enough partners to cross the 50% threshold, often through allocating key council positions or even mayoral posts, may be tempting, but she argues negotiations should also weigh the values, track record and governing principles of potential partners and the practical realities of working together. A number of coalitions formed after the 2021 Local Government Elections, she notes, could be described as marriages of convenience that proved unstable, producing frequent leadership changes and disruptions to service delivery, in many cases to a breaking point. Agreements between parties of similar size may be harder to negotiate, but such arrangements are often more balanced, create genuine power-sharing partnerships, better reflect the wishes of voters and provide a stronger foundation for effective service delivery at local level.

Public confidence in political institutions is thin. Although more than 600 political parties are registered with the IEC for LGE2026, 47% of eligible voters said in Wave 1 of the survey that no political party represents their views; in the latest wave that rose to 53%, and half of registered voters share this view. Some 68% of registered voters say politicians can’t be trusted, against only 15% who disagree. “Voter apathy is widely blamed, but voters are disappointed, disillusioned and frustrated with the situation in the country, especially with lack of service delivery and political promises without any action or any sense of responsibility on the side of many councils,” says Harris. Reflecting that sentiment, 58% of registered voters agree it is acceptable to turn to protests such as strikes and marches when dissatisfied with local service delivery, placing significant pressure on newly elected councils.

Party support patterns reinforce the fragmented picture. Support for the ANC has declined significantly since the 2021 Local Government Elections, though the party has historically strengthened during the final stages of campaigns. The DA appears to have consolidated support beyond its 2021 and 2024 levels and is running a very long campaign, especially in Johannesburg. MK is contesting a local election for the first time and appears likely to largely emulate its 2024 national performance. ActionSA is a notable exception among the smaller parties, with its gains driven primarily by Gauteng; a small proportion of “Don’t Knows” intend to vote but are still choosing a party. Only a small number of the hundreds of registered parties attract meaningful support, with the remainder each below 1%.

In the metros, the DA and ANC levels in Johannesburg broadly reflect the national view, with the DA slightly ahead of the ANC this time. MK’s support there appears lower than other recent indicators suggest, though fieldwork coincided with uncertainty around Jacob Zuma’s hospitalisation, and any impact cannot be determined. In Tshwane the DA is 3 percentage points ahead of the ANC. In Cape Town the DA attracts just over half of voter support and remains firmly ahead of its nearest competitors; the PA’s decision to exclude journalists from its public meetings may have affected its media exposure, and the party now looks less likely to pose the significant challenge some commentators anticipated, though the rural Western Cape may differ. In eThekwini, despite an 8-percentage-point shift, MK remains comfortably ahead as the largest party, while the DA performs close to its LGE2021 position and the ANC and EFF have not recovered ground lost to MK in 2024.

By contrast, in the four remaining metros, where margins of error are larger, Ipsos offers summary remarks only: in Ekurhuleni the ANC leads the DA narrowly, followed by MK (its best performance outside eThekwini), ActionSA and the EFF; Nelson Mandela Bay shows an extremely close DA-ANC race; in Buffalo City the ANC appears likely to remain the largest party, possibly short of an outright majority; and in Mangaung the ANC remains ahead, followed closely by the DA and the EFF.

Institutions themselves retain a measure of public endorsement. Earlier in 2026, an Ipsos study found that about four in ten South Africans (42%) agreed or strongly agreed that the GNU is working well and is a better form of government for South Africa than majority rule by the ANC, with 29% disagreeing, 22% neither agreeing nor disagreeing and 7% holding no opinion. Two-thirds of South Africans (65%) believe different parties should work together at local government level as well, with 22% disagreeing, 10% neither agreeing nor disagreeing and 3% without an opinion. Whether the parties negotiating control of the country’s councils can convert that appetite for cooperation into stable governance is now the central accountability question before 4 November 2026.