ANC Loses Ground as South African Voters Punish Party Over Crumbling Services

SOUTH AFRICA’S ANC FACES DEEPENING VOTER BACKLASH AHEAD OF LOCAL ELECTIONS

Unemployment, crime, infrastructure collapse, and poverty have become entrenched features of South African life. Impassable roads, crater-like potholes, burst water pipes, and mountains of trash mark daily existence across the country’s communities. These conditions have fueled mounting public anger at the governing African National Congress, Nelson Mandela’s former liberation party.

The frustration extends beyond domestic hardship. Since April, a wave of violence targeting foreign nationals has killed several people and displaced more than 176,000 migrants, most returning to Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. At a recent Southern African Development Community summit in Durban, the vigilante group March and March demanded that neighboring governments “come and take your people back,” while police worked to contain the protests. President Cyril Ramaphosa acknowledged the crisis beforehand, saying he was “concerned and ashamed” that citizens of other countries had been subjected to abuse and violence.

According to Fredson Guilengue of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, the anti-migrant sentiment reflects deeper discontent with the ANC’s governance record. “This reflects their frustration, particularly with the ANC’s failure at both the national and local levels to create jobs, tackle inequality, reduce crime and improve living conditions,” Guilengue told DW. “In the November 4 elections, South Africans will express their deep frustration over the lack of public services, inadequate infrastructure and poverty.”

The November local elections will test the ANC’s ability to retain voter support after its historic 2024 setback, when it won just 40.2% of the vote. Guilengue notes that little has improved since then. Unemployment remains high, crime persists, and corruption continues unchecked. Municipalities governed by the ANC have experienced widespread mismanagement and steady infrastructure deterioration, generating what he calls “enormous public anger.”

Analysts expect voters to shift toward opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party that has governed in coalition with the ANC since 2024. Former Cape Town mayor Helen Zille, known as the “Iron Lady,” is running as the DA’s mayoral candidate in Johannesburg, the country’s economic hub. “She will run a very strong campaign, which could benefit the DA and hurt the ANC,” Guilengue said.

The ANC’s leadership challenges extend well beyond electoral performance. Impeachment proceedings against President Ramaphosa have been suspended but have damaged his public standing. Ramaphosa came under suspicion of money laundering in 2020 after $580,000 was stolen from a sofa at his Phala Phala game farm. He has denied wrongdoing, saying the money was proceeds from the sale of buffaloes. Guilengue observed that the ANC appears to be delaying these proceedings to avoid their coinciding with this year’s elections, potentially extending them until 2029, when Ramaphosa’s constitutional term limit expires. “The ANC leadership, which is supposed to be fighting corruption, is itself facing allegations of corruption,” Guilengue noted.

Political analyst Daniel Silke describes a “continuing erosion of the ANC” as approval ratings decline. “We are witnessing a continuing turning point in South African politics that began in 2024: the gradual disintegration of the former liberation movement. The black electorate is more polarized and fragmented than ever, and among former ANC supporters, the shine has come off the liberation movement,” Silke told DW.

Silke identifies three defining features of contemporary South Africa: a stagnant economy, a shrinking manufacturing sector, and eroded trust in political and security institutions. “That’s an almost perfect recipe for discontent,” he said. The critical question, he added, is whether former ANC voters will support opposition parties or abstain from voting altogether.

By contrast, the picture on the opposition side is one of fragmentation rather than consolidation. Silke predicts that voters will distribute support across multiple parties, including the DA, the MK Party of former president Jacob Zuma, and smaller ethnically aligned parties such as the Patriotic Alliance, the Freedom Front Plus, and ActionSA. This fragmentation will likely necessitate coalition governments. “Governance will be challenging, as complex coalitions, potentially including the ANC, will need to be stabilized in order to provide South Africa with at least the semblance of effective public service delivery,” Silke said.

The ANC and DA remain the country’s two largest parties, though neither approaches 50% support. How each chooses its coalition partners, Silke argues, will determine South Africa’s political direction well beyond November 4.