For ordinary South Africans, the possibility of the country regaining its investment-grade credit rating by 2028 is not an abstract financial milestone. It touches the cost of living, the price of borrowing, and the health of the public finances that fund the services citizens rely on every day.
That is the assessment of Osagyefo Mazwai, investment strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment International, who told Stephen Grootes on The Money Show that South Africa has a better-than-even chance of restoring its investment-grade status within the next two years. The improved outlook follows recent credit-rating upgrades and visible progress in managing government finances.
The stakes for households and businesses are straightforward. A return to investment grade could lift investor confidence and help lower borrowing costs for government, businesses and households alike. Cheaper borrowing for the state means more fiscal room, while businesses and families feel the effect through the cost of credit. Mazwai cautioned, however, that sustained fiscal discipline and stronger economic growth remain essential if the recovery is to last.
The country’s current standing with rating agencies frames the challenge. In June 2026, Fitch Ratings raised South Africa’s long-term credit ratings from BB- to BB, while Moody’s moved its outlook to positive in May. Both agencies still place the country below investment grade, meaning the journey back is not yet complete.
What gives Mazwai confidence, he explained, is the track record the National Treasury has already built. “Is it plausible that we could get to investment grade by 2028? And we answered that by saying yes, because we have seen credit rating upgrades of late. And that’s primarily been due to the stronger fiscal story, the strengthening of institutional capacity in South Africa,” he said.
The grey list episode is central to his argument. Earlier this year, South Africa was removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey list, an outcome Mazwai points to as proof that government can deliver on demanding institutional reforms. “What are the probability of these positive events happening during this next, call it, 14-month period? That would get us to investment grade. And we said the probability is skewed in the positive side. And one of the key drivers of us having that view is how National Treasury delivered on South Africa’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list,” he told Grootes.
For citizens, that institutional capability matters beyond the rating itself. It speaks to whether the state can follow through on commitments that affect the wider economy and the public purse. Mazwai expressed confidence on this front. “The National Treasury is very much capable to execute on an institutional reform project… and we think that the probability is skewed in the positive direction that they can again deliver on a holistic institutional reform project that will support an investment grade rating by 2028,” he said.
The 14-month window he references is the period in which the positive developments would need to materialise for the 2028 goal to be reached. His view is that the odds tilt favourably, grounded in the fiscal improvements and institutional strengthening already demonstrated rather than in hope alone.
The caution in his analysis is as relevant to the public as the optimism. Upgrades to date have been earned through discipline in managing government finances, and holding that course, alongside stronger economic growth, is what would make cheaper credit and improved confidence durable rather than fleeting. The full interview with Mazwai can be heard in the audio player accompanying the original report.